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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the current field is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against several other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still