A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
