Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.