Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
