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Initially, the former US president appeared to take a strong approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following making warnings of "severe repercussions" last August in case Putin persisted obstructing ceasefire talks, Trump finally imposed substantial penalties on Russia's primary petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously hindered Putin's ability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for the conflict, reportedly created by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukrainian or EU input, Trump has seemingly returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's proposal would in practice reward Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democracy in peril. Despite strong declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal effectively weaken that very independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate experience, the former president seems to consider the war as a mere land disagreement, like giving Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. Yet, Russia's invasion is not simply about occupying a destroyed swath of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent intention to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an enticing model for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that Putin's deepening dictatorship withholds them.

Land Giveaways

Although keeping in position the currently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would require Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a decade of conflict, this surrender would render Ukraine's defenses critically undermined.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified military defenses that are a critical impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a unobstructed path to the capital in case he subsequently opt to renew the hostilities.

Defense Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would make renewed fighting simpler for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the size of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, the proposal sets no such restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to depict Ukraine's democratically elected administration as radicals, the proposal states: "Any radical doctrine and actions must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal places no obligation that Putin risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the proposal has Russia promise not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in regulation its policy of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent treaties in the history – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a handback of occupied land in the Donbas to the government – for what reason should the international community trust Putin this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western defense commitments. While the plan threatens a "strong coordinated defense action" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars range from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from deploying military personnel on the nation's land, thus preventing the reassurance force, likely led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from replenishing his weakened forces, rearming, and reinvading.

World Concern

Another parallel deal according to sources would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any future "serious, planned, and sustained aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a military response. But different from a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's most reliable protection against additional invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of Western powers, including Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's attacks, something they have {not